@ncscswitch:
Even if you just clear the territory, Japan can;t follow up and capitalize and take India on J1 since they lack manpower in FIC (and the SZ59 TRN is dead). So, while UK may not re-take Egypt, they keep India (which you basically surrender on an India counter).
You still damage the Japan Navy with your UK fleet, sinking a ship, maybe two depending on how many BB’s are brought to SZ59
You still bleed off forces from Pearl, increasing the casualties there
And you bleed off/kill FIGs increasing casualty rates for China on J1, and for future battles due to lost airpower (from the FIC attack, and then from attacks in SZ59 and Pearl)
If it goes terribly wrong, what have you lost as UK? You are gambling on nearly equal forces, and can ALWAYS RETREAT if round 1 dice go wrong (you CAN’T lose the UK FIG on the first round, even with the worst possible dice).
Giving Germany a free armor blitz through Africa is far more damaging than keeping India for a few extra turns.
And I never bleed off forces that are going to sz52. Either I go in with overwhelming force or I don’t go in. Gambling with Japans navy is a sure way to get beaten.
And if it comes down to having to split my forces to attack sz52, sz59, and China, I will attack sz52 and only make one of the two other attacks, usually sz59. Eliminating the UK naval threat allows Japan to focus their entire navy on the US and it doesn’t hurt my feelings to let the China fighter survive because the US/UK forces in Asia are limited and Russia will have a hard time reinforcing Asia with Germany sending 40+ IPC’s worth of units at them every turn.
If you aren’t going to counterattack Egypt with the UK fighter then you would probably be better off using it to help attack the Japanese sub and then adding it to the US forces in sz52. At least that way, you give the US better odds with a counterattack in sz52 on their turn or even preserve that fleet entirely if Japan decides against attacking it.