XDAP WB Final: JDOW+ME1945 Axis vs nerqueen+Elrood Allies+35

[Elrood]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.9

Game History

Round: 12

Purchase Units - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            British buy 5 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific buy 1 artillery and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - British
            1 mech_infantry moved from India to Burma
                  UK_Pacific take Burma from Japanese

Combat - British

Non Combat Move - British
            5 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yakut S.S.R. to Russia
            4 infantry moved from United Kingdom to 109 Sea Zone
            4 infantry and 2 transports moved from 109 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            4 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
            1 destroyer moved from 93 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Tobruk to Egypt
            1 aaGun moved from Tunisia to Libya
            1 artillery moved from Rhodesia to Belgian Congo
            1 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Belgian Congo
            3 mech_infantrys moved from Union of South Africa to Belgian Congo
            1 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Union of South Africa
            1 bomber moved from Urals to Egypt
            2 transports moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 92 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from 98 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 fighter moved from 92 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 battleship moved from 26 Sea Zone to 64 Sea Zone

Place Units - British
            3 mech_infantrys placed in Union of South Africa
            3 infantry placed in Egypt
            2 infantry placed in United Kingdom

Turn Complete - British
            British collect 26 PUs; end with 27 PUs total

Place Units - UK_Pacific
            1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in India

Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 39 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1,3
            UK_Pacific collect 6 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 6 PUs total
            Some Units in India change ownership: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Libya: 3 fighters
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Egypt: 3 fighters
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

triplea_38727_UK_12.tsvg

[JDOW]

Too bad I overlooked the bombers on TJ. I would have loved to take a 10-20% on Moscow and see where this leads.

Good game, well played.

[Witt]

I have enjoyed following uour game guys. Great seesaw game. Thank you all.
Congratulations both for getting to the final.

[Elrood]

Woa. its really over?

Man, that was intense!! :-)

Thanks for the great game!

[JDOW]

Yeah, without those 6 figs any German attack on Russia if off the table I guess. Also, even if a mircale happens at Russia, Egypt would be out of range then, too many reinforcements incoming.

Actually, I was surprised you allowed an attack at Egypt in the first place.

In US9 you moved the carrier with the UK figs from 92 to 88. I did not understand that. Just sink the Italian TT in 98 and land the figs in Egypt and Egypt would have been safe for good.

But then I played sloppy myself. The only realistic plan would have been to protect Egypt better to aim for an-all at Moscow at 2-20% or so.

Anyway, dice went back and forth. If 110 goes well for you, Axis would have been in huge trouble.
I believe if the Tokyo attack would not have worked, Axis would have won. With Japan alive Germany would have become too strong.

You played very crafty and used your bombers well. Good game again!

[JDOW]

“If 110 goes well for you”

I meant 112

[Elrood]

I can answer that.

Yes. Sz112 as well as Hopei went not so good. That made the attack on Tokyo more important.
That US AC with the 2 UK Figs in SZ92… these UK figs would have joined the follow up attack on Tokyo.
Believe you me, that Nerquen and I discussed that Sz92 AC at length… but Japan was too important… and so we gave up on Egypt. Although you got a but lucky there too, with first the SBR and then the oddsy attack. We didnt think Egypt would fall THAT fast. But Tokyo compensated for that well enough.
Plan was: US first, then UK, then Anz, then Russia would take it… it was like ~75% chance altogether to our estimates.

But alas… US turn went well above average and made it even lest costly for allies.

[JDOW]

Was it really 75% total at Tokyo?

I guess US had 37% but the most likely outcome (av. defenders if won) was enough to keep the odds the the follow up very low. I estimated 50-55% total. But as the online calculator does not support AA, the battle was tough to simulate:

http://calc.axisandallies.org/

Anyway, we should have protected Tokyo better and if those UK increased the chances on Tokyo it would have been the right move.

Would have been interesting to see if Tokyo falls with all US planes down almost all fighters dead. In this case Germans would have had significant odds on Moscow I guess.

Anyway, too many ifs.

[Elrood]

Yeah. we kinda bet on an eventual very lucky battle…. We firmly believe that Allies need this, and must look for such openings even at questionable odds. Backing away and waiting for that 90% odds battle is just not realistic against formidable Axis players. At least that is our impression of that game.

[Elrood]

My only regret here is that Tension which arose due to our respective moving schedules.

please be assured that we never wanted to piss you off or so.

[nerquen]

Thanks for a great game guys! It was very intense here and in a way I am glad it is over. I have to admit we got lucky in two major battles of the game (Tokyo and Cairo) and it helped a lot… UK planes surviving Cairo attack could join the Tokyo battle for 2nd wave. Would be a very open game if all US and UK planes died in Tokyo and instead Japan had its expected Cairo survivors around.

I believe Elrood wanted to say 65% on Tokyo, not 75%. According to this handy BC http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/graph.php?cmd=barchart&rules=1940&battleType=land&attInfantry=9&attMechanizedInfantry=2&attArtillery=1&attFighter=18&attTacticalBomber=1&attBomber=14&defAAGun=11&defInfantry=23&defFighter=10&defTacticalBomber=3 it was 68.7% that Japan survives with at most 10 fighters. Those then should have been defeatable with UK 2nd and ANZ 3rd waves. If UK had 2 fighters less for 2nd wave we would realistically need at most 8 Jap fighters to survive the 1st wave… so those 2 UK fighters taken out from Egypt increased our Tokyo odds by ~ 8% which we thought was worth it, as we agree with you that if Tokyo survived those T10 attacks it would be immediate game over for Allies.

@JDOW:

Was it really 75% total at Tokyo?

I guess US had 37% but the most likely outcome (av. defenders if won) was enough to keep the odds the the follow up very low. I estimated 50-55% total. But as the online calculator does not support AA, the battle was tough to simulate:

http://calc.axisandallies.org/

Anyway, we should have protected Tokyo better and if those UK increased the chances on Tokyo it would have been the right move.

Would have been interesting to see if Tokyo falls with all US planes down almost all fighters dead. In this case Germans would have had significant odds on Moscow I guess.

Anyway, too many ifs.

[Elrood]

I think you mean we were lucky at calcutta… where our uk planes survived  :mrgreen:

[nerquen]

correct, Cairo = Calcutta, in my above post… it was too late when I was writing that

[JDOW]

Thanks nerqueen.

http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

I, I just found this via the link you provided. This looks good!

[Gargantua]

Apologies for late response.  I don’t spend enough time at A&A.org these days!

It appears we have a CLEAR champion of the Tournament (after 2+ years LOL).

There is the matter of a pit fight, but I don’t know that anyone will step forward?

Team Garl was defeated by the Spanish Armada; and the Spanish armada was defeated by… ?  and in theory JDOW has a legitimate claim to reclaim their honor.

I’d like to get this wrapped up;  So lets proceed.

Nerqueen, you have the strongest vested interest in all of this; and have been paying the most attention as the champion LOL.  I beseech you sir.  Review the pit teams, and either use a lottery, or CHOOSE who you wish to face in the final battle.

We can skip 6 months of pit battling that way, and get right down to the Dirty!